Democrat Jocelyn Benson leads Republican John James by 12.4 percentage points in a Michigan State University poll of likely voters released Monday, Oct. 26, on Michigan’s governor’s race.
The Institute for Public Policy and Social Research’s State of the State Survey found Benson, Michigan’s secretary of state, at 53.3%, compared with 40.9% for James, a U.S. representative. Those figures include voters leaning toward either candidate. The institute reported a 9-point gap in its August survey.
The U.S. Senate race showed a smaller difference, with Democrat Abdul El-Sayed at 48% and Republican Mike Rogers at 45.5%, including leaning voters. The 2.5-point gap compares with a 5.5-point lead for El-Sayed in August, according to the institute.
YouGov surveyed 1,000 Michigan adults online Oct. 2-19, including 836 likely voters. The full results report a likely-voter margin of error of about 4.4 percentage points. The Senate difference falls within that margin.
“The gap between the governor and Senate races has grown, with centrist voters more likely to support Benson than El-Sayed,” said Matt Grossmann, the institute’s director, in its release announcing the findings.
The institute said Benson received more support than El-Sayed from independents, Wayne County residents, Catholics, Black voters and ideological moderates. Among voters younger than 30, El-Sayed received more support than Benson.
The institute said anti-Muslim attitudes may be playing a role in the tighter Senate contest. About 38% of likely voters said they would be less likely to support a candidate who is Muslim. The institute said those respondents were much less likely to support El-Sayed.
If elected, El-Sayed would become the first Muslim U.S. senator in the nation’s history, Bridge Michigan reported.
Among likely voters, 35.5% rated President Donald Trump’s job performance as excellent or good. About 52% said they would be less likely to support a candidate endorsed by Trump.
Michigan’s general election is Tuesday, Nov. 3.
